Tax Calculator
Tax Projection Worksheet: What It Calculates and How to Read the Result
Quick answer
This worksheet projects your federal ordinary income tax forward up to 10 years using an assumed income growth rate and inflation rate, showing AGI, your deduction, taxable income, and tax bracket for each year. It's a planning baseline for questions like 'what tax bracket will I be in five years from now,' not a substitute for a full return.
- Your inputs suggest meaningful planning tradeoffs.
- Small assumption changes can materially change outcomes.
- A coordinated plan can reduce risk and improve efficiency.
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| Year | Gross income | AGI | Deduction | Taxable income | Federal tax | Marginal | Effective | After-tax income |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $150,000 | $150,000 | $16,100 | $133,900 | $24,734 | 24.0% | 16.5% | $125,266 |
| 2027 | $154,500 | $154,500 | $16,503 | $137,998 | $25,532 | 24.0% | 16.5% | $128,968 |
| 2028 | $159,135 | $159,135 | $16,915 | $142,220 | $26,356 | 24.0% | 16.6% | $132,779 |
| 2029 | $163,909 | $163,909 | $17,338 | $146,571 | $27,206 | 24.0% | 16.6% | $136,703 |
| 2030 | $168,826 | $168,826 | $17,771 | $151,055 | $28,083 | 24.0% | 16.6% | $140,744 |
Federal tax is computed on ordinary income only using 2026 bracket data, scaled by your inflation assumption for future years. It does not model capital gains, the Alternative Minimum Tax, the Net Investment Income Tax, state tax, or credits.
Adjustments to income are held flat in nominal dollars across the projection; contribution limits and phase-outs are not modeled.
This calculator provides educational estimates only. Actual tax outcomes depend on your complete return. Consult a qualified tax professional before acting on these figures.
What This Calculator Actually Answers
Most people only think about their tax bill one year at a time. This worksheet takes your current income, applies a growth assumption, and walks the 2026 federal brackets and standard deduction forward with an inflation assumption, so you can see the trajectory of your tax bill and marginal bracket rather than a single snapshot.
That trajectory matters for timing decisions: Roth conversions, business income timing, retirement account withdrawals, and charitable giving are all more effective when you know roughly which bracket you'll be in two or three years out, not just this year.
How to Read the Result
The marginal rate column tells you the rate on your next dollar of income in a given year; the effective rate tells you what share of your AGI actually went to federal tax. A rising marginal rate over the projection usually means income growth is outpacing the inflation adjustment to the brackets — a signal that a Roth conversion or other bracket-management move earlier in the window may be worth more than waiting.
Because the standard deduction and bracket thresholds are scaled by your own inflation assumption rather than real future IRS figures (which don't exist yet beyond 2026), treat years further out as directionally useful, not precise. The first one or two projected years are the most reliable.
Common Mistakes
- Assuming a flat inflation rate for both income growth and bracket adjustment produces zero bracket creep. In reality, wage growth and IRS inflation adjustments rarely move at exactly the same pace, and even a 1-point gap compounds over a decade.
- Ignoring capital gains, the Alternative Minimum Tax, and the Net Investment Income Tax, none of which this worksheet models. High earners with investment income need those layered on separately.
- Holding adjustments to income (401(k), HSA) flat in nominal dollars when contribution limits typically rise — this worksheet's simplification understates future deductions for savers who plan to max out an increasing limit.
- Treating a single-year snapshot as the whole picture when a multi-year Roth conversion or business income deferral strategy depends on where you land relative to a bracket threshold two or three years out, not just this year.
When This Calculator Is Not the Right Tool
This worksheet models only federal ordinary income tax. It does not include Arizona's 2.5% flat state tax, capital gains, IRMAA surcharges, or Social Security taxation. If your situation involves an active Roth conversion decision, the Roth Conversion Bracket Analyzer is the more precise tool. If you have significant capital gains or losses, pair this with the Capital Gain & Loss Harvesting calculator.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why does the worksheet only go out 10 years?
Ten years is roughly the outer bound where a nominal income-growth and inflation assumption stays plausible for planning purposes. Beyond that, too much can change (career, tax law, retirement timing) for a straight-line projection to be useful.
Why doesn't this include state tax?
State tax rules vary widely and, in Arizona's case, are simple enough (a flat 2.5% on most ordinary income) that you can approximate it by multiplying the projected taxable income by 2.5% yourself. Building it in would falsely imply the same precision for households in other states.
What income growth rate should I use?
For W-2 income, 3% (roughly average wage growth) is a reasonable default. For business owners with variable income, or anyone expecting a specific raise, bonus, or business sale, override the default with your best estimate — the whole point of the tool is to reflect your actual trajectory, not a generic one.
How is this different from the Roth Conversion Bracket Analyzer?
This worksheet projects your baseline tax bill forward with no conversion. The Roth Conversion Bracket Analyzer is a decision tool: it tells you how much you could convert in a given year to fill a target bracket. Use this worksheet first to see your trajectory, then use the conversion analyzer to decide whether to intervene.