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Sequence of Returns Risk Analyzer

Stress-test retirement withdrawals against early downturns to quantify depletion risk and mitigation options.

Sequence of Returns Risk Analyzer
Stress-test retirement withdrawals against “bad timing” (poor early returns) and see which mitigations help most.

The key idea: Two portfolios can have a similar long-run average return, but if the bad years hit early (while withdrawals are happening), the plan can fail.

This tool shows the same “average-ish” returns in different orders, then quantifies the impact on longevity, ending balance, drawdowns, and spending adjustments.

1) Timeline
Ages and planning horizon.

If ON, retirement start age = current age.

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2) Portfolio + spending
Starting value, withdrawals, inflation, fees.
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Default: ON

3) Allocation
Used to combine stock + bond returns.
Stocks60%
Bonds40%

Historical returns use S&P 500 + 10y US Treasuries (annual).

4) Return path builder
Controlled demo (default) or historical.
Demo mode uses hardcoded sequences so the “timing effect” is obvious and repeatable.
5) Mitigations (active config)
Toggles that can reduce sequence-of-returns risk.

During negative invested years, withdrawals are funded from cash first.

Default: 0–15%

Cut applies when start-of-year total is below this % of retirement start.

Start 20pp more conservative, ramp back over 10 years.

Reduces portfolio withdrawals after claim age.

Sequence Impact (Early vs Late)
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$2.0M less
Longevity hit
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10 years shorter
Historical success (optional)
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—
This looks worth addressing sooner.
Your results point to elevated planning risk. A short planning session can identify the fastest levers to pull.
  • Success probability: 0%
  • Sequence risk exposure: ~1,971,637
  • High sequence risk exposure (>$250k sequence impact).

Schedule a planning session to stress-test options and build a step-by-step action plan.

Schedule a Planning Session
Scenario comparison (up to 3 configurations)
Same return sequences, different mitigation settings.
ConfigLasts to ageEnding (Early)Ending (Late)Worst DD (Early)Sequence impact
Base plan85$0.0$2.0M-100.0%$2.0M / 10y shorter
Base + cash buffer83$0.0$1.5M-100.0%$1.5M / 12y shorter
Base + dynamic spending / bond tent95$3.7M$1.7M-34.9%$0.0
Portfolio balance paths (side-by-side)
Same average-ish returns, different order. This is sequence risk.

For illustration only, not individualized advice. See full disclosures. View disclosures

Withdrawal paths
Shows inflation + cuts/guardrails clearly.

For illustration only, not individualized advice. See full disclosures. View disclosures

Depletion risk attribution
Why “bad early years” matter more than “bad late years.”
The first 5 years’ cumulative return is dramatically worse in Early Downturn, which forces larger withdrawals from a smaller portfolio—often the difference between “lasts” and “depletes.”

For illustration only, not individualized advice. See full disclosures. View disclosures

Year-by-year table
Age, balances, returns, fees, withdrawals, and mitigation events.
AgeYearStartReturnFeesPlannedSSWdEndNotes
65—$1,500,000-14.4%$6,163$60,000$0$60,000$1,226,477
66—$1,226,477-8.8%$5,312$61,500$0$61,500$1,057,147
67—$1,057,147-5.6%$4,692$63,037$0$63,037$933,747
68—$933,747-3.6%$4,189$64,613$0$64,613$833,655
69—$833,655-2.2%$3,753$66,229$0$66,229$746,790
70—$746,7904.8%$3,557$67,884$0$67,884$707,936
71—$707,9366.0%$3,383$69,582$0$69,582$673,272
72—$673,2727.2%$3,226$71,321$0$71,321$642,065
73—$642,0657.8%$3,067$73,104$0$73,104$610,273
74—$610,2738.4%$2,902$74,932$0$74,932$577,409
75—$577,4099.6%$2,743$76,805$0$76,805$545,918
76—$545,91810.8%$2,588$78,725$0$78,725$515,062
77—$515,06212.0%$2,432$80,693$0$80,693$484,060
78—$484,0604.8%$2,103$82,711$0$82,711$418,511
79—$418,5116.0%$1,769$84,778$0$84,778$351,988
80—$351,9887.2%$1,421$86,898$0$86,898$282,755
81—$282,7557.8%$1,044$89,070$0$89,070$207,749
82—$207,7498.4%$631$91,297$0$91,297$125,602
83—$125,6029.6%$175$93,580$0$93,580$34,921
84—$34,92110.8%$0$95,919$0$34,921$0
85—$012.0%$0$0$0$0$0
86—$04.8%$0$0$0$0$0
87—$06.0%$0$0$0$0$0
88—$07.2%$0$0$0$0$0
89—$07.8%$0$0$0$0$0
90—$08.4%$0$0$0$0$0
91—$09.6%$0$0$0$0$0
92—$010.8%$0$0$0$0$0
93—$012.0%$0$0$0$0$0
94—$04.8%$0$0$0$0$0

What to do next
Mitigation checklist (planning ideas).
  • Test flexibility: Try a 5–10% spending cut after negative years and see how longevity changes.
  • Add a cash buffer: 1–3 years of spending can reduce forced selling in downturns.
  • Consider a bond tent: De-risk around the retirement date, then gradually increase equity exposure.
  • Coordinate income: If applicable, model a higher Social Security benefit by delaying claiming.
  • Get a personalized plan: Taxes, account location, and household cashflows can materially change results.
Disclosures
Educational only (hypothetical modeling).

Educational only; not investment, tax, or legal advice.

Hypothetical results; future returns differ. Sequence risk is real—outcomes depend on withdrawals, fees, inflation, allocation, and behavior.

If you’d like an individualized analysis for your household, consider scheduling a consultation with Singh PWM.

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