Safe Withdrawal Rate Simulator
Model retirement withdrawal strategies and portfolio longevity under different market sequences.
What SWR is: a planning stress-test for how long a portfolio might fund withdrawals under different market sequences.
What SWR is not: a guarantee. Real life includes taxes, spending flexibility, one-time events, healthcare costs, and changing allocations.
Locks retirement start age to current age.
Annual returns use US stocks + 10y US bonds; rebalanced annually.
Used when rate choice is Custom.
Default: ON
Used to compute a suggested initial withdrawal rate for the active scenario.
- Success probability: 100%
- Small assumption changes can materially change outcomes.
- A coordinated plan can reduce risk and improve efficiency.
Schedule a planning session to confirm you’re optimized and protected against downside scenarios.
Annual
Annual
Blocks raises
Annual
| Scenario | Success | Median ending | 5th pct ending | Median max DD | Median avg wd |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Static 3.5% | 100.0% | $12.1M | $6.2M | -24.3% | $114.3K |
| Static 4.0% | 100.0% | $9.9M | $5.0M | -25.0% | $130.6K |
| Guardrails | 100.0% | $8.6M | $4.9M | -27.2% | $167.6K |
| Age | Year | Start | Withdrawal | Stock r | Bond r | Fees | End | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 1962 | $1,500,000 | $0 | -8.8% | 5.7% | $7,274 | $1,447,576 | |
| 61 | 1963 | $1,447,576 | $0 | 22.6% | 1.7% | $8,268 | $1,645,413 | |
| 62 | 1964 | $1,645,413 | $0 | 16.4% | 3.7% | $9,160 | $1,822,909 | |
| 63 | 1965 | $1,822,909 | $0 | 12.4% | 0.7% | $9,819 | $1,953,964 | |
| 64 | 1966 | $1,953,964 | $0 | -10.0% | 2.9% | $9,299 | $1,850,523 | |
| 65 | 1967 | $1,850,523 | $64,768 | 23.8% | -1.6% | $10,147 | $2,019,327 | |
| 66 | 1968 | $2,019,327 | $66,388 | 10.8% | 3.3% | $10,526 | $2,094,626 | |
| 67 | 1969 | $2,094,626 | $68,047 | -8.2% | -5.0% | $9,429 | $1,876,343 | |
| 68 | 1970 | $1,876,343 | $69,748 | 3.6% | 16.8% | $9,831 | $1,956,394 | |
| 69 | 1971 | $1,956,394 | $71,492 | 14.2% | 9.8% | $10,598 | $2,108,937 | |
| 70 | 1972 | $2,108,937 | $73,279 | 18.8% | 2.8% | $11,439 | $2,276,315 | |
| 71 | 1973 | $2,276,315 | $75,111 | -14.3% | 3.7% | $10,222 | $2,034,212 | |
| 72 | 1974 | $2,034,212 | $76,989 | -25.9% | 2.0% | $8,343 | $1,660,306 | |
| 73 | 1975 | $1,660,306 | $78,914 | 37.0% | 3.6% | $9,776 | $1,945,520 | |
| 74 | 1976 | $1,945,520 | $80,887 | 23.8% | 16.0% | $11,252 | $2,239,174 | |
| 75 | 1977 | $2,239,174 | $82,909 | -7.0% | 1.3% | $10,385 | $2,066,702 | |
| 76 | 1978 | $2,066,702 | $84,982 | 6.5% | -0.8% | $10,265 | $2,042,678 | |
| 77 | 1979 | $2,042,678 | $87,106 | 18.5% | 0.7% | $10,891 | $2,167,226 | |
| 78 | 1980 | $2,167,226 | $89,284 | 31.7% | -3.0% | $12,244 | $2,436,569 | |
| 79 | 1981 | $2,436,569 | $91,516 | -4.7% | 8.2% | $11,779 | $2,344,061 | |
| 80 | 1982 | $2,344,061 | $93,804 | 20.4% | 32.8% | $14,106 | $2,807,176 | |
| 81 | 1983 | $2,807,176 | $96,149 | 22.3% | 3.2% | $15,546 | $3,093,569 | |
| 82 | 1984 | $3,093,569 | $98,553 | 6.2% | 13.7% | $16,350 | $3,253,669 | |
| 83 | 1985 | $3,253,669 | $101,016 | 31.2% | 25.7% | $20,339 | $4,047,465 | |
| 84 | 1986 | $4,047,465 | $103,542 | 18.5% | 24.3% | $23,822 | $4,740,674 | |
| 85 | 1987 | $4,740,674 | $106,130 | 5.8% | -5.0% | $23,521 | $4,680,633 | |
| 86 | 1988 | $4,680,633 | $108,784 | 16.5% | 8.2% | $25,879 | $5,150,003 | |
| 87 | 1989 | $5,150,003 | $111,503 | 31.5% | 17.7% | $31,733 | $6,314,962 | |
| 88 | 1990 | $6,314,962 | $114,291 | -3.1% | 6.2% | $31,208 | $6,210,388 | |
| 89 | 1991 | $6,210,388 | $117,148 | 30.2% | 15.0% | $37,820 | $7,526,206 | |
| 90 | 1992 | $7,526,206 | $120,077 | 7.5% | 9.4% | $40,081 | $7,976,165 | |
| 91 | 1993 | $7,976,165 | $123,079 | 10.0% | 14.2% | $43,846 | $8,725,381 | |
| 92 | 1994 | $8,725,381 | $126,156 | 1.3% | -8.0% | $41,956 | $8,349,340 | |
| 93 | 1995 | $8,349,340 | $129,310 | 37.2% | 23.5% | $54,134 | $10,772,632 | |
| 94 | 1996 | $10,772,632 | $132,542 | 22.7% | 1.4% | $60,744 | $12,088,110 |
This simulator is for educational purposes only and is not investment, tax, or legal advice.
Results are hypothetical and highly sensitive to return sequence, fees, inflation, and spending behavior. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
If you’d like a plan tailored to your household, taxes, and account structure, consider scheduling a consultation.