Retirement Calculator
Safe Withdrawal Rate Simulator: What It Calculates and How to Read the Result
Quick answer
A safe withdrawal rate simulator tests your proposed initial withdrawal percentage against historical or modeled market sequences to estimate the probability your portfolio survives a 30-year retirement. The classic 4% rule is a reference point, not a rule — most current research suggests 3.5–3.8% for today's valuation environment, or higher (4.5–5%) if you have meaningful spending flexibility.
What SWR is: a planning stress-test for how long a portfolio might fund withdrawals under different market sequences.
What SWR is not: a guarantee. Real life includes taxes, spending flexibility, one-time events, healthcare costs, and changing allocations.
Locks retirement start age to current age.
Annual returns use US stocks + 10y US bonds; rebalanced annually.
Used when rate choice is Custom.
Default: ON
Used to compute a suggested initial withdrawal rate for the active scenario.
- Success probability: 100%
- Small assumption changes can materially change outcomes.
- A coordinated plan can reduce risk and improve efficiency.
Schedule a Strategic Fit Interview to confirm you’re optimized and protected against downside scenarios.
No commitment. No sales agenda. 30 minutes with a flat-fee CFP & Enrolled Agent.
Annual
Annual
Blocks raises
Annual
| Scenario | Success | Median ending | 5th pct ending | Median max DD | Median avg wd |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Static 3.5% | 100.0% | $12.1M | $6.2M | -24.3% | $114.3K |
| Static 4.0% | 100.0% | $9.9M | $5.0M | -25.0% | $130.6K |
| Guardrails | 100.0% | $8.6M | $4.9M | -27.2% | $167.6K |
| Age | Year | Start | Withdrawal | Stock r | Bond r | Fees | End | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 1962 | $1,500,000 | $0 | -8.8% | 5.7% | $7,274 | $1,447,576 | |
| 61 | 1963 | $1,447,576 | $0 | 22.6% | 1.7% | $8,268 | $1,645,413 | |
| 62 | 1964 | $1,645,413 | $0 | 16.4% | 3.7% | $9,160 | $1,822,909 | |
| 63 | 1965 | $1,822,909 | $0 | 12.4% | 0.7% | $9,819 | $1,953,964 | |
| 64 | 1966 | $1,953,964 | $0 | -10.0% | 2.9% | $9,299 | $1,850,523 | |
| 65 | 1967 | $1,850,523 | $64,768 | 23.8% | -1.6% | $10,147 | $2,019,327 | |
| 66 | 1968 | $2,019,327 | $66,388 | 10.8% | 3.3% | $10,526 | $2,094,626 | |
| 67 | 1969 | $2,094,626 | $68,047 | -8.2% | -5.0% | $9,429 | $1,876,343 | |
| 68 | 1970 | $1,876,343 | $69,748 | 3.6% | 16.8% | $9,831 | $1,956,394 | |
| 69 | 1971 | $1,956,394 | $71,492 | 14.2% | 9.8% | $10,598 | $2,108,937 | |
| 70 | 1972 | $2,108,937 | $73,279 | 18.8% | 2.8% | $11,439 | $2,276,315 | |
| 71 | 1973 | $2,276,315 | $75,111 | -14.3% | 3.7% | $10,222 | $2,034,212 | |
| 72 | 1974 | $2,034,212 | $76,989 | -25.9% | 2.0% | $8,343 | $1,660,306 | |
| 73 | 1975 | $1,660,306 | $78,914 | 37.0% | 3.6% | $9,776 | $1,945,520 | |
| 74 | 1976 | $1,945,520 | $80,887 | 23.8% | 16.0% | $11,252 | $2,239,174 | |
| 75 | 1977 | $2,239,174 | $82,909 | -7.0% | 1.3% | $10,385 | $2,066,702 | |
| 76 | 1978 | $2,066,702 | $84,982 | 6.5% | -0.8% | $10,265 | $2,042,678 | |
| 77 | 1979 | $2,042,678 | $87,106 | 18.5% | 0.7% | $10,891 | $2,167,226 | |
| 78 | 1980 | $2,167,226 | $89,284 | 31.7% | -3.0% | $12,244 | $2,436,569 | |
| 79 | 1981 | $2,436,569 | $91,516 | -4.7% | 8.2% | $11,779 | $2,344,061 | |
| 80 | 1982 | $2,344,061 | $93,804 | 20.4% | 32.8% | $14,106 | $2,807,176 | |
| 81 | 1983 | $2,807,176 | $96,149 | 22.3% | 3.2% | $15,546 | $3,093,569 | |
| 82 | 1984 | $3,093,569 | $98,553 | 6.2% | 13.7% | $16,350 | $3,253,669 | |
| 83 | 1985 | $3,253,669 | $101,016 | 31.2% | 25.7% | $20,339 | $4,047,465 | |
| 84 | 1986 | $4,047,465 | $103,542 | 18.5% | 24.3% | $23,822 | $4,740,674 | |
| 85 | 1987 | $4,740,674 | $106,130 | 5.8% | -5.0% | $23,521 | $4,680,633 | |
| 86 | 1988 | $4,680,633 | $108,784 | 16.5% | 8.2% | $25,879 | $5,150,003 | |
| 87 | 1989 | $5,150,003 | $111,503 | 31.5% | 17.7% | $31,733 | $6,314,962 | |
| 88 | 1990 | $6,314,962 | $114,291 | -3.1% | 6.2% | $31,208 | $6,210,388 | |
| 89 | 1991 | $6,210,388 | $117,148 | 30.2% | 15.0% | $37,820 | $7,526,206 | |
| 90 | 1992 | $7,526,206 | $120,077 | 7.5% | 9.4% | $40,081 | $7,976,165 | |
| 91 | 1993 | $7,976,165 | $123,079 | 10.0% | 14.2% | $43,846 | $8,725,381 | |
| 92 | 1994 | $8,725,381 | $126,156 | 1.3% | -8.0% | $41,956 | $8,349,340 | |
| 93 | 1995 | $8,349,340 | $129,310 | 37.2% | 23.5% | $54,134 | $10,772,632 | |
| 94 | 1996 | $10,772,632 | $132,542 | 22.7% | 1.4% | $60,744 | $12,088,110 |
This simulator is for educational purposes only and is not investment, tax, or legal advice.
Results are hypothetical and highly sensitive to return sequence, fees, inflation, and spending behavior. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
If you’d like a plan tailored to your household, taxes, and account structure, consider scheduling a consultation.
What This Calculator Actually Answers
This simulator tests your proposed withdrawal rate (an initial dollar amount as a percentage of starting portfolio, then adjusted for inflation each year) against thousands of randomized or historical market sequences. The output is a probability distribution of outcomes: in what percentage of trials does your portfolio survive 30 years? At what age does the median failing trial run out?
Crucially, the tool also models 'dynamic' withdrawal strategies — variations on the static 4% inflation-adjusted rule that allow modest spending cuts in down years. Dynamic strategies consistently outperform static ones in stress-tested simulations.
How to Read the Result
The headline success rate is less important than two related numbers: the percentage of trials that fail before age 85, and the 10th-percentile ending balance. A plan with 90% success but a 10th-percentile ending balance near zero is fragile; a plan with 80% success but a 10th-percentile ending balance of $500K+ is durable in ways the success-rate alone doesn't show.
Pay attention to the difference between static and dynamic withdrawal results. If switching from static-4% to a dynamic strategy improves success from 85% to 95%, that signals your plan benefits a lot from spending flexibility — which is a real planning insight, not just a number.
Common Mistakes
- Treating the success rate as a guarantee. An 85% success rate means 15% of historical (or modeled) sequences failed — and 'failure' is portfolio depletion before age 95, which is a genuine outcome.
- Using a static 4% rule when you actually have spending flexibility. Real retirees almost never spend at a fixed inflation-adjusted rate through a bear market; modeling that flexibility raises the realistic safe rate meaningfully.
- Ignoring Social Security and pension income. These are part of the spending solution and reduce the load on the portfolio.
- Using historical U.S. returns without acknowledging that future returns may differ materially — and that high current equity valuations argue for lower withdrawal rates.
- Not stress-testing the worst 10% of outcomes. A plan that works in 90% of scenarios still needs a defensive plan for the 10% it doesn't.
When This Calculator Is Not the Right Tool
This is a portfolio durability tool, not a tax-coordination tool. It answers 'will my money last?' under various assumptions; it does not answer 'how should I draw from each account type?' or 'should I do Roth conversions?' Use this in tandem with the tax-coordination tools, not as a substitute for them.
Frequently Asked Questions
Does the 4% rule still work?
Sort of — but with caveats. The original 4% rule was derived from U.S. historical data with a 30-year horizon. It remains a useful reference point. Recent research (Pfau, Kitces) suggests 3.5–3.8% is a more defensible static rate in today's valuation environment, while dynamic strategies (variable withdrawals, guardrails) can sustainably support 4.5–5%+ with meaningful spending flexibility.
What's a 'guardrails' withdrawal strategy?
Guardrails set upper and lower thresholds on your portfolio value, with predefined rules for when to cut spending (when portfolio falls below the lower guardrail) or increase spending (when it rises above the upper guardrail). Compared to static withdrawals, guardrails capture upside in good markets and protect the portfolio in bad ones — and consistently outperform static strategies in stress tests.
How does my asset allocation affect the safe withdrawal rate?
Heavily. A 100% bond portfolio has a much lower safe withdrawal rate (often 3% or less) than a 60/40 stock/bond portfolio (4%+). The reason is that bond-only portfolios cannot keep pace with inflation over a 30-year horizon. Most successful retirement plans hold 50–70% equity even at retirement age.
What if I'm planning for a longer horizon than 30 years?
Safe rates need to be lower. A 40-year horizon (retiring at 55 or 60 with longevity expectations) typically supports closer to 3% as the static rate. The compounding effect of small differences over four decades is dramatic.